Published and accepted papers
Creative Destruction through Innovation Bursts
Econometrica - Conditionally Accepted, July 2026 [companion note] (with Giuseppe Berlingieri, Danial Lashkari, Davide Rigo)
In theories of creative destruction, product innovation is a key driver of aggregate growth. This paper confronts the predictions of these theories about product dynamics with empirical patterns in product-level data on French manufacturing firms. We find that the process of product innovation frequently exhibits bursts—episodes in which firms rapidly add multiple products to their portfolio. Bursts lead to substantial shifts in revenue, and the process of product creation and destruction explains 88% of the variance in five-year firm growth. We introduce a model of firm product innovation that is compatible with the data while also nesting the canonical models of creative destruction. Innovation bursts alter the equilibrium composition of age, size, and innovation efficiency of firms, and explain the concentration of production among superstar firms.
The Hitchhiker's Guide to Markup Estimation: Assessing Estimates from Financial Data
Econometrica - January 2026 [appendix][replication code][compustat markups] (with Basile Grassi and Giovanni Morzenti)
Macroeconomic outcomes depend on the distribution of markups across firms and over time, making firm-level markup estimates key for macroeconomic analysis. Methods to obtain these estimates require data on the prices that firms charge. Firm-level data with wide coverage, however, primarily comes from financial statements, which lack information on prices. We use an analytical framework to show that trends in markups or the dispersion of markups across firms can still be well-measured with such data. We validate the analytical results using simulations of a quantitative macroeconomic model and offer supporting evidence from firm-level pricing data. Our analysis supports the use of financial data to measure trends in aggregate markups.
Market Power and Innovation in the Intangible Economy
American Economic Review - January 2024 [VoxEU summary] [online appendix] [replication code]
This paper offers a unified explanation for the slowdown of productivity growth, the decline in business dynamism, and the rise of market power. Using a quantitative framework, I show that the rise of intangible inputs, such as software, can explain these trends. Intangibles reduce marginal costs and raise fixed costs, which gives firms with high-intangible adoption a competitive advantage, in turn deterring other firms from entering. I structurally estimate the model on French and US micro data. After initially boosting productivity, the rise of intangibles causes a decline in productivity growth, consistent with the empirical trends observed since the mid-1990s.
When is the Fiscal Multiplier High? A Comparison of Four Business Cycle Phases
European Economic Review - September 2021 [replication code] (with Travis Berge and Damjan Pfajfar)
This paper compares the effect of fiscal spending on economic activity across four phases of the business cycle. We show that the fiscal multiplier is higher when unemployment is increasing than when it is decreasing. Conversely, fiscal multipliers do not depend on whether the unemployment rate is above or below its long-term trend. Our findings synthesize previous, at times conflicting, evidence on the state-dependence of fiscal multipliers and imply that fiscal intervention early on in economic downturns is most effective at stabilizing output.
Econometrica - Conditionally Accepted, July 2026 [companion note] (with Giuseppe Berlingieri, Danial Lashkari, Davide Rigo)
In theories of creative destruction, product innovation is a key driver of aggregate growth. This paper confronts the predictions of these theories about product dynamics with empirical patterns in product-level data on French manufacturing firms. We find that the process of product innovation frequently exhibits bursts—episodes in which firms rapidly add multiple products to their portfolio. Bursts lead to substantial shifts in revenue, and the process of product creation and destruction explains 88% of the variance in five-year firm growth. We introduce a model of firm product innovation that is compatible with the data while also nesting the canonical models of creative destruction. Innovation bursts alter the equilibrium composition of age, size, and innovation efficiency of firms, and explain the concentration of production among superstar firms.
The Hitchhiker's Guide to Markup Estimation: Assessing Estimates from Financial Data
Econometrica - January 2026 [appendix][replication code][compustat markups] (with Basile Grassi and Giovanni Morzenti)
Macroeconomic outcomes depend on the distribution of markups across firms and over time, making firm-level markup estimates key for macroeconomic analysis. Methods to obtain these estimates require data on the prices that firms charge. Firm-level data with wide coverage, however, primarily comes from financial statements, which lack information on prices. We use an analytical framework to show that trends in markups or the dispersion of markups across firms can still be well-measured with such data. We validate the analytical results using simulations of a quantitative macroeconomic model and offer supporting evidence from firm-level pricing data. Our analysis supports the use of financial data to measure trends in aggregate markups.
Market Power and Innovation in the Intangible Economy
American Economic Review - January 2024 [VoxEU summary] [online appendix] [replication code]
This paper offers a unified explanation for the slowdown of productivity growth, the decline in business dynamism, and the rise of market power. Using a quantitative framework, I show that the rise of intangible inputs, such as software, can explain these trends. Intangibles reduce marginal costs and raise fixed costs, which gives firms with high-intangible adoption a competitive advantage, in turn deterring other firms from entering. I structurally estimate the model on French and US micro data. After initially boosting productivity, the rise of intangibles causes a decline in productivity growth, consistent with the empirical trends observed since the mid-1990s.
When is the Fiscal Multiplier High? A Comparison of Four Business Cycle Phases
European Economic Review - September 2021 [replication code] (with Travis Berge and Damjan Pfajfar)
This paper compares the effect of fiscal spending on economic activity across four phases of the business cycle. We show that the fiscal multiplier is higher when unemployment is increasing than when it is decreasing. Conversely, fiscal multipliers do not depend on whether the unemployment rate is above or below its long-term trend. Our findings synthesize previous, at times conflicting, evidence on the state-dependence of fiscal multipliers and imply that fiscal intervention early on in economic downturns is most effective at stabilizing output.
Working papers and work in progress
Lost in Transition: Financial Barriers to New Technologies
Draft, July 2026 (with Philippe Aghion, Antonin Bergeaud, John Van Reenen)
Advanced economies are reshaped by transitions from old to new technological paradigms. These transitions rely on complementary innovations that spread new technologies across industries. What happens when a financial crisis disrupts investment in these innovations? Using a Schumpeterian endogenous growth model with financial frictions, we show that investment in new technologies is more sensitive to tighter financial conditions than investment in mature technologies. The key mechanism is path dependence: firms build expertise in the technologies they previously developed, leading young firms to self-select into emerging technologies. As young firms are more financially constrained, shocks to financing disproportionately depress innovation in new technologies. We validate this mechanism using causal evidence on green patenting by German firms around the Global Financial Crisis.
Emissions-Adjusted Total Factor Productivity
Working Paper, July 2026 (with Lukasz Rachel) [VoxEU summary][data]
In many advanced economies, the recent productivity slowdown coincided with declines in carbon dioxide emissions. Productivity statistics ignore this progress, even though lower emissions raise future consumption. We propose emissions-adjusted total factor productivity (TFPE), a forward-looking, welfare-relevant productivity measure. TFPE requires few assumptions, relying on the social cost of carbon as a sufficient statistic. At recent consensus estimates of the social cost of carbon, U.S. TFPE could grow twice as fast as TFP during a transition to net zero by 2050. At these costs of carbon, historical productivity adjustments are modest; at higher values, the post-2005 U.S. productivity slowdown disappears.
The Fiscal Multiplier of Education Expenditures
Revise and Resubmit, AEJ: Macroeconomics - October 2025 (with Julio Brandao-Roll, Simona Hannon, Damjan Pfajfar) [VoxEU summary]
This paper examines the short-run effects of federal education expenditures on local income. We exploit city-level variation in exposure to national changes in the $30-billion Federal Pell Grant Program, which is the largest program to help low-income students attend college in the U.S., to calculate fiscal multipliers of education expenditures. An increase in Pell grants by 1 percent of a city’s income raises local income by 2.4 percent over the next two years.
Intangible Investment and the Persistent Effect of Financial Crises on Output
Working Paper, updated December 2019 [VoxEU summary]
This paper identifies the mechanism through which financial crises exert long-term negative effects on output. Theory suggests that a shortfall in productivity-enhancing investments temporarily slows technological progress, creating a gap between pre-crisis trend and actual GDP. Exploiting exogenous variation in firm-level exposure to the Global Financial Crisis, I show that tight credit reduced investments in productivity-enhancement, and significantly slowed down output growth between 2010 and 2015.
Policy Shocks and Wage Rigidities: Empirical Evidence from the Regional Effect of National Shocks
Cambridge INET working paper, April 2017 (with Damjan Pfajfar)
This paper studies the effect of wage rigidities on the transmission of fiscal and monetary policy shocks. We calculate downward wage rigidities across U.S. states using the Current Population Survey. These estimates are used to explain differences in the state-level economic effects of identical national shocks in interest rates and taxes. In line with the role of sticky wages in New Keynesian models, we find that contractionary monetary policy and tax shocks increase unemployment and decrease economic activity in rigid states considerably more than in flexible states.
Draft, July 2026 (with Philippe Aghion, Antonin Bergeaud, John Van Reenen)
Advanced economies are reshaped by transitions from old to new technological paradigms. These transitions rely on complementary innovations that spread new technologies across industries. What happens when a financial crisis disrupts investment in these innovations? Using a Schumpeterian endogenous growth model with financial frictions, we show that investment in new technologies is more sensitive to tighter financial conditions than investment in mature technologies. The key mechanism is path dependence: firms build expertise in the technologies they previously developed, leading young firms to self-select into emerging technologies. As young firms are more financially constrained, shocks to financing disproportionately depress innovation in new technologies. We validate this mechanism using causal evidence on green patenting by German firms around the Global Financial Crisis.
Emissions-Adjusted Total Factor Productivity
Working Paper, July 2026 (with Lukasz Rachel) [VoxEU summary][data]
In many advanced economies, the recent productivity slowdown coincided with declines in carbon dioxide emissions. Productivity statistics ignore this progress, even though lower emissions raise future consumption. We propose emissions-adjusted total factor productivity (TFPE), a forward-looking, welfare-relevant productivity measure. TFPE requires few assumptions, relying on the social cost of carbon as a sufficient statistic. At recent consensus estimates of the social cost of carbon, U.S. TFPE could grow twice as fast as TFP during a transition to net zero by 2050. At these costs of carbon, historical productivity adjustments are modest; at higher values, the post-2005 U.S. productivity slowdown disappears.
The Fiscal Multiplier of Education Expenditures
Revise and Resubmit, AEJ: Macroeconomics - October 2025 (with Julio Brandao-Roll, Simona Hannon, Damjan Pfajfar) [VoxEU summary]
This paper examines the short-run effects of federal education expenditures on local income. We exploit city-level variation in exposure to national changes in the $30-billion Federal Pell Grant Program, which is the largest program to help low-income students attend college in the U.S., to calculate fiscal multipliers of education expenditures. An increase in Pell grants by 1 percent of a city’s income raises local income by 2.4 percent over the next two years.
Intangible Investment and the Persistent Effect of Financial Crises on Output
Working Paper, updated December 2019 [VoxEU summary]
This paper identifies the mechanism through which financial crises exert long-term negative effects on output. Theory suggests that a shortfall in productivity-enhancing investments temporarily slows technological progress, creating a gap between pre-crisis trend and actual GDP. Exploiting exogenous variation in firm-level exposure to the Global Financial Crisis, I show that tight credit reduced investments in productivity-enhancement, and significantly slowed down output growth between 2010 and 2015.
Policy Shocks and Wage Rigidities: Empirical Evidence from the Regional Effect of National Shocks
Cambridge INET working paper, April 2017 (with Damjan Pfajfar)
This paper studies the effect of wage rigidities on the transmission of fiscal and monetary policy shocks. We calculate downward wage rigidities across U.S. states using the Current Population Survey. These estimates are used to explain differences in the state-level economic effects of identical national shocks in interest rates and taxes. In line with the role of sticky wages in New Keynesian models, we find that contractionary monetary policy and tax shocks increase unemployment and decrease economic activity in rigid states considerably more than in flexible states.
Other publications
Growing through innovation: young firms make the difference, Staat van het MKB (Dutch), November 2025
Higher market concentration may be good news for Dutch productivity, ESB (Dutch), September 2025
Adjusting productivity for carbon emissions: has there really been a slowdown in growth? (with Lukasz Rachel), VoxEU, August 2025
Dutch productivity grows rapidly when accounting for progress on emissions, ESB (Dutch), June 2025 (with Lukasz Rachel)
When do R&D investments foster economic growth? ESB (Dutch), June 2024
The Multiplier of the United States' Largest Scholarship Program, VoxEU, April 2022 (with Simona Hannon, Damjan Pfajfar)
Fiscal multipliers during a pandemic, Cambridge I-NET Special Feature, May 2020
Tijdens de coronacrisis hebben overheidsuitgaven veel effect op het nationaal product, ESB, May 2020
Intangible inputs can harm productivity growth, ESB (Dutch), October 2019
Untouchable firms: market power, business dynamism, and productivity growth in the intangible economy, VoxEU, July 2019
De economische effecten van het Algemeen Verbindend Verklaren, ESB, September 2017 (with Rob Euwals)
Endogenous growth and the lack of recovery from the Global Crisis, VoxEU, July 2017 (with Coen Teulings)
What are the wage effects of collective bargaining extensions? CPB Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis, April 2016 (with Rob Euwals)
Higher market concentration may be good news for Dutch productivity, ESB (Dutch), September 2025
Adjusting productivity for carbon emissions: has there really been a slowdown in growth? (with Lukasz Rachel), VoxEU, August 2025
Dutch productivity grows rapidly when accounting for progress on emissions, ESB (Dutch), June 2025 (with Lukasz Rachel)
When do R&D investments foster economic growth? ESB (Dutch), June 2024
The Multiplier of the United States' Largest Scholarship Program, VoxEU, April 2022 (with Simona Hannon, Damjan Pfajfar)
Fiscal multipliers during a pandemic, Cambridge I-NET Special Feature, May 2020
Tijdens de coronacrisis hebben overheidsuitgaven veel effect op het nationaal product, ESB, May 2020
Intangible inputs can harm productivity growth, ESB (Dutch), October 2019
Untouchable firms: market power, business dynamism, and productivity growth in the intangible economy, VoxEU, July 2019
De economische effecten van het Algemeen Verbindend Verklaren, ESB, September 2017 (with Rob Euwals)
Endogenous growth and the lack of recovery from the Global Crisis, VoxEU, July 2017 (with Coen Teulings)
What are the wage effects of collective bargaining extensions? CPB Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis, April 2016 (with Rob Euwals)
Discussions
Product Switching and Young Firm Dynamics (by Kim and Jo) - xAmsterdam Macro Conference
Carbon Taxes and Misallocation in Chile (by Klenow, Pasten and Ruane) - NBER Summer Institute
Market Power, Growth, and Wealth Inequality (by Impullitti and Rendahl) - NBER Summer Institute
Data and Markups: A Macro-Finance Approach (by Eeckhout and Veldkamp) - 9th ECB Annual Research Conference [video]
A Theory of Endogenous Degrowth and Environmental Sustainability (by Aghion, Boppart, Peters, Schwartzman, Zilibotti) - CdF conference
Competition, Firm Innovation, and Growth under Imperfect Technology Spillovers (by Jo and Kim) - CEPR growth meeting
Market Concentration, Growth, and Acquisitions (by Weiss) - CFM & Warwick & Vienna Global Macro Workshop
Good Rents vs Bad Rents: R&D Misallocation and Growth (by Aghion, Bergeaud, Boppart, Klenow and Li) - NBER Summer Institute
Patents that Match Your Standards (by Bergeaud, Schmidt, and Ziggo) - Banque de France
Productivity, Demand and Growth (by Ignaszak and Sedlacek) - DNB Annual Research Conference
Kaldor and Piketty's Facts: The Rise of Monopoly Power in the United States (by Eggertson, Robbins and Wold) - JME SNB conference
Carbon Taxes and Misallocation in Chile (by Klenow, Pasten and Ruane) - NBER Summer Institute
Market Power, Growth, and Wealth Inequality (by Impullitti and Rendahl) - NBER Summer Institute
Data and Markups: A Macro-Finance Approach (by Eeckhout and Veldkamp) - 9th ECB Annual Research Conference [video]
A Theory of Endogenous Degrowth and Environmental Sustainability (by Aghion, Boppart, Peters, Schwartzman, Zilibotti) - CdF conference
Competition, Firm Innovation, and Growth under Imperfect Technology Spillovers (by Jo and Kim) - CEPR growth meeting
Market Concentration, Growth, and Acquisitions (by Weiss) - CFM & Warwick & Vienna Global Macro Workshop
Good Rents vs Bad Rents: R&D Misallocation and Growth (by Aghion, Bergeaud, Boppart, Klenow and Li) - NBER Summer Institute
Patents that Match Your Standards (by Bergeaud, Schmidt, and Ziggo) - Banque de France
Productivity, Demand and Growth (by Ignaszak and Sedlacek) - DNB Annual Research Conference
Kaldor and Piketty's Facts: The Rise of Monopoly Power in the United States (by Eggertson, Robbins and Wold) - JME SNB conference